Why is it Taking So Long For Lightning to be Adopted?

Logos of Bitcoin and the Lightning Network on a blue background
Image from bitpay.com

It’s been 6 years since inception, but the Lightning Network has not seen as much adoption as we’d have hoped back then.

 

Channel capacity doesn’t seem to increase in multiples and onboarding to the network in a self-custodial manner seems to be quite difficult for people who don’t have a technical background.

 

Exchanges have been quite slow to integrate it, with some of them having signalled their intent to do so only recently after seeing a lot of pressure from the public.

 

A person who hasn’t taken a closer look at the industry might feel persuaded to believe that the network is inferior to other fancy scaling solutions that exist in the market like validity rollups or optimistic rollups.

 

However, we have.

 

Having previously been involved in the wider crypto space, we have some first-hand experience with the state of things over there.

But does it have a token?

The first thing that an average person in the crypto industry would ask when something new is introduced to them is the following: ‘But does it have a token?’

 

If the answer is no, they tend to simply move on to something that does.

 

Almost every scaling project on other networks have introduced a token, created a foundation with a considerable amount of said token allocated to it.

 

If there is no token yet, you can expect them to signal their intention to introduce one in the future, due to sheer pressure from the community.

 

These tokens are airdropped to users who have made transactions on their network, incentivising usage. To incentivise people to lock up liquidity on the various DeFi protocols that have deployed on the network, liquidity mining incentives in the form of these tokens are doled out.

 

There are some glaring shortcomings of these rollups in terms of decentralisation which they have yet to achieve in any capacity. Whether or not these tokens have lead to blissful ignorance about these shortcomings, or to what is commonly referred to as copium in the form of future promises which may or may not be kept, is not something we’d like to interpret.

 

But the following facts can’t be denied:

 

1. Sequencers and Provers are not distributed among various entities in these rollups, and there is no way for it to be that way at the moment.

 

2. Governance is not sufficiently decentralised, with teams claiming that it will be in the near future.

 

3. Rollups are not interoperable with each other.

 

We are not taking a stance on how solvable these problems are. They might be solved in the future, or not. There are some undeniably capable people working in that space and we don’t doubt their competence. If or when they get solved, we’ll be celebrating it. We only want to take an honest look at the supposed alternatives to scaling that exist in the market right now, and acknowledge the incentives that have existed to drive the market towards their direction.

 

As people actively building products on the Lightning Network, we’re acutely aware of the various technical bottlenecks that exist in it too, and of the efforts being made towards overcoming them. However, the community’s acceptable and non-acceptable trade-offs at the protocol level is something we align with, as we think the right problems will be prioritised.

 

But in this context, we want to explore why the market has taken a lot of time to adopt LN in a meaningful manner.

 

It is definitely possible to scale the network to billions of people, if we are all okay with using custodial solutions to do so. The network is certainly capable of that.

 

But the community clearly does not want that, shown from their constant pressure and criticism on those willing to make the wrong tradeoffs.

 

Having a token is not a worthy tradeoff to make in favour of faster adoption of the network by the market. And so, building the Lighting Network and its infrastructure will have to be a bottom-up effort. This can lead to certain challenges.

 

Chicken and Egg Liquidity

One great example is the search for liquidity.

 

For transactions to be routed, we need channel liquidity.

 

However, channel liquidity will only improve when there is an incentive for people to lock up their Bitcoin in routing nodes.

 

But, the incentive (routing fees) will only come when there are a lot of transactions occurring to generate fee revenue from, which can’t happen without sufficient channel liquidity.

 

So the search for liquidity becomes a chicken and egg problem.

 

So far, the network has been built from the ground-up by reckless plebs who wanted to see Bitcoin scale to billions of people.

 

Best examples of this are voluntary initiatives like Plebnet and Rings of Fire. These are groups of enthusiasts being reckless, running routing nodes and opening channels between each other to improve the overall reliability of the network by making liquidity available for transactions to go through.

 

Open source initiatives like Breez SDK and LDK have made it much easier for newer developers to build innovative solutions on top of the Lightning Network without having to build out the entire stack themselves. (More on this soon.)

 

Dozens of grassroots initiatives around the world are building circular economies whose members are using the Lightning Network to make economic transactions.

 

Little by little, the Bitcoin community is building out the network for the world.

Governance Model

Adding to the fact that it has no choice but to grow in a bottom-up manner, there is no foundation or organisation that makes protocol-level decisions to determine the direction of the network.

 

There are set of standards that define the network’s spec which was arrived at through rough consensus, with a process of that defines how changes need to be proposed. And there are various implementations built in adherence to these standards like LND, Core-lightning, Eclair, Rust-lightning, Electrum. There is no foundation or organisation that develops and markets the network to people. It’s all open source.

 

Taking all of this into account, it becomes clear why Lightning adoption has been quite slow.

It has to grow solely on its technical merit and feasibility.

 

As a company that wants to rapidly scale our business to 700 million Europeans, we don’t like this.

 

But as a company that wants to build on top of a sustainable and resilient foundation, we love this.

 

Our observation has been that companies, developers and participants in the Lightning ecosystem are predominantly focused on making sure that the network is censorship-resistant, private, reliable and easy for people to use without trusting a third-party.

 

We align with the overall vision.

 

And it is okay if it takes time.

 

We are willing to be patient.

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